Drought estimation in the Middle East
Background
The study area in the Middle East comprises the territories of Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian Territories of the West Bank. The entire region is subjected to enormous water stress and political tensions, because its scarce water resources are jointly managed by Israel, Palestine and Jordan, whose management strategies also require cooperation and joint approaches to solutions.
The target region is also characterized by high hydrological variability and evaporation losses, i.e. strongly fluctuating availability of surface and groundwater and consequently an overuse of groundwater resources, insufficient wastewater treatment and thus water contamination, as well as constant growth of industry and population.
The GRaCCE project aims at the development of a process-based integrated method to determine groundwater recharge and predict droughts in order to support water management in semi-arid regions such as Israel, Palestine and Jordan. Porous-fractured bedrock aquifers contain important groundwater resources and, due to their heterogeneous structure, require adapted assessment and modeling methods to capture the highly dynamic and often difficult-to-predict infiltration rates. Previous studies show that the thick vadose zones (several hundreds of meter) prevalent in the region can be relevant for water management as long-term reservoirs and, if properly considered as a dynamic water resource, can contribute to mitigating supply shortages during long-term droughts. Due to the dual permeability characteristics of the vadose zone in fracture and karst aquifer systems, i.e., fast and slow pathways and their interaction, quantification of water fluxes through the unsaturated zone requires additional scientific effort.
Data, Models, and Developments
Data and models behind the visualized maps and graphs have been mainly developed and/or processed by the Universität Göttingen in the frame of the GRaCCE, a BMFTR (formerly known as BMBF) funded project.
An early version of this work has been presented in EGU2025 as Kavousi et al. (2025) [abstract available at:
https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-11710.html].
For further information on the seasonal forecast, please check this diagram.
Contact Information
- Prof. Dr. Martin Sauter (1, 2 | Martin.Sauter@geo.uni-goettingen.de)
- Dr. Alireza Kavousi (1, 2 | alireza.kavousi@uni-goettingen.de)
Drought Modelling
To characterize infiltration and groundwater recharge, different hydrogeological, geophysical and hydrogeochemical methods as well as modern numerical modeling approaches are combined to determine available water resources in a management period of about 1 month. Information from daily-based climate modeling that reproduces the general development of precipitation and evaporation characteristics, is considered in predictive modeling of the period 2020 - 2070.
Applications
The results of these studies serve as a quantitative basis for predicting water deficits in a control volume of the aquifer based on drought indicators and using for example data assimilation techniques. Integration into a web-based toolbox that includes a drought early warning system and adapted pumping and storage strategies will enable water users and local governments to improve regional resilience to extreme climate events and minimize water stress.